Удосконалення методів підвищення точності прогнозування атмосферних процесів на основі застосування сучасних прогнозуючих моделей

Abstract

This scientific work provides a comprehensive evaluation of geophysical and atmospheric support as a critical pillar of modern air navigation safety. The research highlights the escalating complexity of the flight environment in 2026, driven by increased s olar activity, global climate shifts, and the growing frequency of extreme weather events. The author identifies a significant "precision gap" in traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which, while effective for macro-scale processes, often fail to provide the spatial and temporal resolution required for local, fast-moving phenomena such as microbursts, Clear Air Turbulence (CAT), and low-level wind shear. The study explores the transition from classical physics-based equations to advanced predictive frameworks that leverage Artificial Sntelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. A central focus is placed on the integration of heterogeneous data sources – including satellite imagery, Doppler radar arrays, ground-based LIDAR, and real-time aircraft telemetry–through sophisticated data assimilation techniques. These modern models are shown to drastically improve the detection of Cumulonimbus (Cb) development and icing conditions, particularly during the critical takeoff and landing phases where aerodynamic stability is most vulnerable. Furthermore, the paper evaluates how high-fidelity meteorological intelligence empowers both flight crews and Air Traffic Control (ATC) units to make proactive decisions, enabling route optimization that minimizes fuel consumption and carbon emissions. The author substantiates that the future of "Smart" meteorological services lies in automated decision -support systems that reduce the cognitive load on personnel while maintaining strict compliance with ICAO and WMO standards. The article concludes that the strategic implementation of these advanced forecasting methodologies is not merely a technical upgrade but a fundamental requirement for ensuring operational resilience and economic efficiency within the globalized and increasingly congested airspace of the modern era.